🍂 Understanding Seasonality and the Yearly Factor
In Optiply, Seasonality refers to recurring patterns where a specific product experiences higher demand during certain times of the year based on historical data.
This concept applies to various scenarios:
Weather-Dependent Items: Sunglasses sell more in summer; winter coats in winter.
Event-Driven Items: Party supplies peaking during Carnival; gifts peaking in December.
Optiply automatically detects these patterns in your sales history and adjusts the purchasing recommendations as these peak periods approach, removing the guesswork for logistics buyers.
The Yearly Seasonality Factor
While Optiply detects patterns automatically, you can control how strongly these historical patterns influence your current forecast using the Yearly Seasonality Factor.
This factor allows you to fine-tune the balance between Last Year's Sales (History) and the Current Trend (Recent Performance).
How the Factor Works
The factor is a value between 0 and 1 that determines the weight given to last year's data.
Factor = 1 (100% Seasonality): The forecast is based entirely on last year's sales. The system assumes that what happened last year will repeat exactly this year.
Factor = 0 (100% Trend): The forecast is based entirely on the current recent sales trend. The system ignores last year's specific peaks and follows the current momentum.
Factor = 0.5 (Balanced): The forecast is a 50/50 mix of last year's patterns and the current trend.
Calculation Examples
Seasonality Factor | Weight: Last Year | Weight: Current Trend | Best Used For... |
1.0 | 100% | 0% | Highly seasonal items (e.g., Christmas trees) where last year is the only reliable predictor. |
0.5 | 50% | 50% | Standard products with some seasonal fluctuation but also subject to current growth/decline. |
0.25 | 25% | 75% | Products where current momentum is more important, but you still want a slight "nudge" from history. |
0.0 | 0% | 100% | Fast-changing assortments or non-seasonal items where last year's data is irrelevant. |
Strategic Usage
You can adjust this factor to best suit your needs per product or category.
Use a Higher Factor if your sales are extremely predictable year-over-year (e.g., specific holiday merchandise).
Use a Lower Factor if your business is growing rapidly or changing significantly, meaning last year's numbers are "too small" or outdated compared to your current sales velocity.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What happens if a product is new and has no history from last year?
If a product has no sales history from the previous year, Optiply cannot apply a seasonality factor. The forecast will rely entirely on the Current Trend and any "New Product" settings you have configured until enough history is built up.
Does the Seasonality Factor affect Safety Stock?
Indirectly, yes. The Seasonality Factor changes the Forecast (the expected demand). Since Safety Stock calculations often use the forecast variance, a highly fluctuating forecast caused by strong seasonality can influence the buffer stock required.
Can I set the Seasonality Factor for my entire account?
Yes, there is typically a global default setting for your account. However, you can often override this at the product or category level for items that behave differently (e.g., keeping a steady factor for basics but a high factor for holiday items).
What is the difference between "Trend" and "Seasonality"?
Trend: The general direction your sales are moving right now (e.g., sales are increasing by 10% month-over-month).
Seasonality: A recurring spike that happens at the same time every year, regardless of the general trend.