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Forecast (cycle)

Learn how Optiply defines the Forecast Cycle (the duration your stock covers) by combining the Manual Order Period and Lead Time, which determines the expected demand for your next purchase.

Carla Domingos avatar
Written by Carla Domingos
Updated this week

πŸ—“οΈ Understanding the Forecast Cycle

The Cycle is the total duration, measured in days, for which you plan to maintain stock when placing a purchase order. It represents the end-to-end period that must be covered by the stock you are currently buying.

The concept of the Cycle is essential because Optiply uses this duration to calculate the Forecast (Cycle), which is the expected demand for that exact period.

How the Cycle is Calculated

The Cycle is determined by combining the two primary time variables set for a supplier: the time between orders and the time for delivery.

Cycle (in days) = Manual Order Period (Reorder Period) + Lead Time (Delivery

Component

Definition

Source

Manual Order Period

The agreed-upon number of days between your scheduled purchase order reviews.

Manually set on the Supplier Page.

Lead Time

The expected number of days it takes for the supplier to ship and for the products to arrive at your warehouse.

Manually set on the Supplier Page.

The Forecast (Cycle) Metric

The Forecast (Cycle) metric displayed in Optiply (on the Product Details overview and in the Purchase Order view) is the calculated expected demand during the duration of that specific Cycle.

This forecast is highly accurate because Optiply's engine uses advanced analysis to ensure all variables are covered:

  • Advanced Trends: Seasonal trends, emerging patterns, and recent changes in demand are all taken into account.

  • Time Coverage: The resulting figure covers the full time you wait for the stock to arrive, plus the time until you place your next order.
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